雷·达里奥：美国隐藏的内战，以及在技术，经济和学术界击败中国的竞赛

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#AI #访谈 #雷·达里奥 #美国 #内战 #技术 #经济 #学术

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0j1gcGD5DrA Ray Dalio：美国隐藏的内战，以及在技术，经济和学术界击败中国的竞赛

这段访谈记录了雷·达里奥（Ray Dalio）与塔克·卡尔森（Tucker Carlson）之间一场深刻而广泛的对话，涉及美国社会内部的分裂状态、人工智能技术的颠覆性影响、中美之间的科技竞争，以及人际关系、社会和谐与教育在未来社会中的关键作用。以下我将从英文原文的思考逻辑出发，以中文进行深入分析与梳理。

一、美国社会的“内战”状态：深层次的价值观与财富差距

达里奥将当前美国社会的分裂状态形容为一种“内战”（Civil War），但他强调，这并非传统意义上的武装冲突，而是指社会内部存在着难以调和的价值观与财富差距，各方为了自身利益而斗争，甚至可能超越法律限制。这种分裂的根源在于：

  • 财富差距的扩大：全球化与技术进步使得少数精英阶层迅速积累财富，而大多数普通民众的收入增长停滞甚至下降，导致社会阶层固化。
  • 教育水平的差距：达里奥指出，美国约60%的人口阅读水平低于六年级，这严重限制了他们的生产力与社会适应能力，进一步加剧了社会分裂。
  • 政治极化的加剧：美国两党之间的政治分歧达到历史最高水平，跨党派合作几乎消失，政治对立情绪日益严重。

达里奥认为，这种社会分裂已经超越了传统的妥协与共情手段所能解决的范畴，甚至可能导致更严重的社会冲突与分裂。 我认为这个分裂在川普上台后和马斯克的一系列改革后被进一步加剧了。

二、人工智能（AI）技术的颠覆性变革：机遇与挑战并存

访谈中，达里奥特别强调了人工智能技术的迅猛发展及其对社会的深远影响。他指出：

  • AI技术的革命性影响：AI技术的进步速度前所未有，能够在多个领域迅速超越人类的智力水平，彻底改变经济、教育、医疗等各个领域的运作模式。
  • 就业结构的巨大变化：AI技术的普及可能导致大量传统就业岗位消失，进一步加剧社会财富分配不均的问题。
  • 社会治理与控制的风险：AI技术的应用可能带来更高效的社会治理，但也可能被用于社会控制甚至极权主义的手段，如何避免这种风险是一个重大挑战。

达里奥指出，美国政府目前缺乏一个明确的“游戏计划”（Game Plan）来应对AI技术带来的这些巨大变革，这种战略缺失令人担忧。 我认为虽然目前的马斯克在进行“改革”，但是看起来更像是头痛医头脚痛医脚，没有从根本上去解决这些问题，而过于激进的改革可能会导致更大的问题，比如更大的分裂，这个从另一个角度也说明了当前美国所面临的困境，沉疴难医。

三、中美科技竞争的现实：优势与劣势的辩证分析

访谈深入探讨了中美之间在科技领域的竞争现状。达里奥认为：

  • 美国的优势：美国在基础研究、创新能力、顶尖大学教育以及吸引全球顶尖人才方面仍然具有明显优势。这种创新生态系统使美国在高端技术研发领域保持领先。
  • 美国的劣势：美国在制造业、AI技术的实际应用以及机器人技术领域已经明显落后于中国。中国在制造业规模、成本控制、技术应用与产业政策方面的优势，使其在全球制造业中占据主导地位。
  • 知识产权保护的挑战：达里奥指出，知识产权保护在全球化背景下难以长期维持，技术优势的保持周期越来越短，这使得竞争更加激烈。

他认为，美国短期内难以重新获得制造业的竞争优势，因此需要明确自身的战略定位，发挥创新与研发的优势，避免在制造业领域与中国进行直接竞争。 我认为美国应该认清事实，和中国展开合作，达到中美互补共赢，这个长期来看对双方的人们和全世界的人们都是有益的。

四、人际关系、社会和谐与教育的重要性：软实力的关键作用

访谈最终回归到人类社会的根本问题，即人际关系、社会和谐与教育的重要性。达里奥强调：

  • 人际关系与社会和谐：在技术飞速发展的时代，人类最重要的特质是如何与他人和谐共处、共同解决问题。社区的和谐与人际关系的质量，才是真正决定人类幸福感与生活质量的关键因素。
  • 教育的核心作用：教育不仅仅是知识的传授，更重要的是培养下一代的文明素养、解决问题的能力以及与他人合作的能力。只有通过教育提升全民的生产力与文明素养，才能有效应对未来的技术变革与社会挑战。

达里奥指出，尽管技术进步带来了物质财富的增长，但并未显著提升人类的幸福感与生活质量。真正的幸福与满足感，更多地取决于人际关系的质量与社会的和谐程度。

五、从中国视角的对比与思考

从中国的视角来看，达里奥的分析具有深刻的启发意义：

  • 社会治理与财富分配：中国在过去几十年通过精准扶贫、教育公平与社会保障体系建设，有效缓解了社会内部的贫富差距与阶层固化问题。这种经验值得美国借鉴。
  • AI技术的战略布局：中国政府在AI技术领域制定了明确的国家战略，强调技术发展与社会治理并重，积极应对技术变革带来的社会影响。这种前瞻性布局使中国在全球科技竞争中占据主动。
  • 产业政策与制造业优势：中国通过长期的产业政策、基础设施建设与科技创新战略，成功在制造业与技术应用领域取得了显著优势。美国在这方面的战略缺失值得反思。
  • 教育改革与文明素养培养：中国近年来在教育改革、文明素养培养与社区治理方面取得了积极成效，强调教育不仅是知识传授，更是文明素养与社会责任感的培养。

总结与展望：应对未来挑战的战略思考

综上所述，这场访谈深刻揭示了当前美国社会面临的深层次问题与未来挑战。达里奥的分析与建议具有高度的战略性与前瞻性，值得全球各国认真思考与借鉴。

未来五年乃至更长时间，全球将经历剧烈的技术与社会变革。无论是美国还是中国，都需要在以下几个方面做出积极努力：

  • 明确战略规划：制定清晰的国家战略，应对技术变革与社会挑战。
  • 加强社会治理：通过有效的社会治理与财富分配政策，缓解社会内部矛盾与分裂。
  • 重视教育改革：提升全民教育水平与文明素养，培养下一代的创新能力与社会责任感。
  • 促进社会和谐：加强社区建设与人际关系培养，提升社会凝聚力与幸福感。

只有在这些方面做出积极努力，才能有效应对未来的未知挑战，实现社会的可持续发展与和谐稳定。

这场访谈不仅是对美国社会的深刻反思，更是对全球各国未来发展道路的战略启示。

我的一些发散想法

  • 技术加速对立：人工智能和自动化可能进一步加剧贫富差距，导致低技能劳动者的失业率上升，从而引发更多社会动荡。
  • 虚拟世界的“逃避”：随着元宇宙技术的发展，部分人可能选择逃避现实，沉浸在虚拟世界中，进一步削弱社会的凝聚力。
  • 区域自治或分裂趋势：如果联邦政府无法有效治理，美国可能出现某些州或区域寻求更高程度自治甚至分裂的趋势。
  • 全球化的反作用：美国内部矛盾可能促使其更加内向化（如贸易保护主义），但这可能进一步削弱其在全球的竞争力。

知识回顾

问答 (简答题)

  • 雷·达里奥认为美国正处于何种类型的“内战”？他用哪些方面来解释这种状况？
  • 根据达里奥的观点，导致美国社会出现巨大两极分化的主要原因是什么？他提到了哪些具体因素？
  • 达里奥如何评价当前美国领导人应对社会分裂的方式？他认为过去是否存在更好的时期？
  • 达里奥认为人工智能（AI）会对社会产生怎样的变革性影响？他提到了哪些具体的潜在应用领域？
  • 在技术发展的大背景下，达里奥如何看待“集体主义”和“单边主义”的演变？他认为当前的趋势是什么？
  • 针对人工智能技术的快速发展，主持人提出了制定“游戏计划”的想法。达里奥对此持何种态度？他认为实际情况是怎样的？
  • 达里奥认为人工智能在经济学领域会带来哪些具体的改变？他提到了对通货膨胀理解的例子。
  • 达里奥如何看待美国和中国在人工智能和相关技术领域的竞争？他认为哪方更有优势？
  • 达里奥认为美国的核心竞争力在于哪些方面？他如何评价美国的制造业和教育体系？
  • 达里奥在访谈的最后强调了什么才是决定社会和谐与幸福的关键因素？他对比了不同国家的幸福指数。

知识回顾答案

  • 达里奥认为美国正处于一种“类型的内战”，指的是存在不可调和的差异，双方都愿意为了各自的目标而斗争。他通过财富差距、价值观差距、以及在一些问题上法律体系的执行力等方面来解释这种状况，例如“庇护城市”的争议和执法的困难。
  • 导致美国社会出现巨大两极分化的主要原因是多种因素的结合，包括全球化和技术变革，这导致了生产力与收入之间的巨大差距。他提到，仅有少数人（约300万）在技术创新中受益，而大部分美国人的阅读水平较低，无法适应这些变革。
  • 达里奥认为过去30年美国领导人应对社会分裂的方式是完全忽视它。他提到，在里根和奥尼尔时代，两党能够合作，而当时的贫富差距和价值观差距没有现在这么大，社会极化程度也较低。
  • 达里奥认为人工智能将带来巨大的变革性影响，他将其比作印刷术和工业革命。他提到，AI在所有领域都能提高效率和能力，包括战争。他还举例说，当前的AI已经可以通过所有领域的博士水平测试，并能跨领域思考和解决复杂问题。
  • 达里奥认为，世界正从一个多种机构（如世界卫生组织、世界贸易组织、世界银行）共同运作的环境，转向以国家或团体自身利益为中心的“单边主义”局面。他认为，现在的问题是谁在控制，以及谁有计划。 达里奥对制定应对AI发展的“游戏计划”持怀疑态度。他认为，虽然理论上应该有这样的计划，但在追求自身利益的现实环境下，很难实现全球或全国范围内的协调合作。他认为，科技发展的竞争本质决定了大家都会争先恐后。
  • 达里奥认为人工智能将使经济学的理解深入到“分子层面”。他举例说，未来可以追踪每一笔交易的细节和原因，从而更精确地理解经济运行规律，例如在制定应对新冠疫情的经济刺激措施时，可以更清楚地了解资金的流向和效果。
  • 达里奥认为，美国和中国在人工智能和相关技术领域会各有优势，不会出现一方完全主导的局面。他认为，知识产权很难长期保护，中国在生产制造和芯片应用方面更具优势，而美国在芯片设计和基础创新方面领先。 达里奥认为美国的核心竞争力在于其独特的创新能力，这得益于其优秀的大学、完善的法律体系和发达的资本市场，以及吸引全球顶尖人才的能力。他认为，美国在制造业方面不具备竞争力，并且在未来也不会重新获得这一优势。
  • 达里奥在访谈的最后强调，人与人之间的相处方式才是决定社会和谐与幸福的关键因素。他指出，权力与健康和幸福之间并非正相关，拥有良好社区是幸福的重要决定因素，并认为培养公民的品德和能力至关重要。

论述题

  • 雷·达里奥认为美国社会正经历一场“类型的内战”。你是否认同他的这一观点？结合访谈内容和你的理解，分析当前美国社会的主要分裂表现在哪些方面，以及这些分裂可能对美国未来的发展产生怎样的影响？

  • 访谈中，雷·达里奥多次提及技术变革（尤其是人工智能）对社会和经济的颠覆性影响。请你结合访谈内容，探讨人工智能可能带来的机遇与挑战，并思考人类社会应该如何应对这些变革，以实现可持续和包容性的发展？

  • 雷·达里奥认为，美国在创新方面具有优势，但在制造业方面不如中国。你如何看待中美两国在科技和产业领域的竞争格局？结合访谈内容，分析两国各自的优势和劣势，并预测未来可能的发展趋势以及对全球经济的影响。

  • 雷·达里奥在访谈中强调了“和谐”和“社区”对社会幸福感的重要性，并指出经济 पावर 与幸福感之间并非直接相关。请你结合访谈内容和你的思考，探讨在追求经济发展的同时，如何构建更加和谐的社会和提升民众的幸福感？政府和社会应该在哪些方面做出努力？

  • 雷·达里奥对未来五年世界将经历“时间扭曲”般的巨大变化持肯定态度，尤其是在人工智能等技术的影响下。你是否赞同他对未来社会变革速度的判断？结合访谈内容，分析可能导致未来五年发生剧烈变化的驱动因素，并探讨个人和组织应该如何适应这种快速变化的世界？

访谈原文

so i’ I’ve heard you say that the United States is in a civil war and I think most Americans don’t perceive that um can you tell us what you mean by that well what I mean by a Civil War I should say a type of Civil War right and what I mean is that there are irreconcilable differences that um each side is willing to fight for uh in order to get the outcomes that they want and that in that environment the issues of how does the legal system work is that going to stand in the way of that fight or is there going to be a fight that will um make the cause uh more important than anything so that’s the type of situation that we’re in and those gaps we understand there’s Comin there’s wealth and values gaps that are entering into this this is uh we’ve seen this through history so where that goes is a different question but we are in that type of Civil War are we not clearly we are clearly we are um how are they resolved I mean clearly they can be resolved through violence uh but what are the other ways you resolve the kind of conflict we have normally um they’re resolved through conflict because you get to the point where both sides can’t reach agreements both sides don’t even want to talk both sides don’t want to to respect the rule of the law so when we’re dealing with things like Sanctuary City issues and we’re dealing with enforceability who has the enforceability okay and and you almost have to play out okay enforceability means police forces and such things who people with guns yeah right people with guns and you know causes that just because the legal thing says they shouldn’t do that that’s not going to stand in the way we have that kind of a situation so we are probably past the point of being able to resolve that by compromise and empathy and all of that so um normally it goes that way I mean the only thing that um can be done um is to have the fear of that um create a necessity for having another path you know like um we were talking about debt situation yes so can can there be a fiscal commission that gets together and then achieves those things or not I think it’s unlikely I think we’re going to more fragmentation states there are some states and other other states I think you’re going to see more fragmentation and so uh but you know it’s like this Dynamic through history this isn’t the first time this happened this happens repeatedly through history and usually you you know it it it runs its course so the way our leaders in the United States have dealt with it over the past 30 years has just been to ignore it completely just ignore well there’s a cycle you know the cycle was um let’s say I don’t know Ronald Reagan and tip O’Neal and they get together and they were operating in a certain way and the manifestations of the circumstances you know the man stations of debt or wealth Gap or values gaps were not as great so you didn’t over that 30-year period have as much polarity in many different ways so now you’ve gone to Greater polarity if you watch statistics I everything I do comes from measuring things so I look at statistics um The Gap um in um measuring conservative or liberal um votes in the house and the Senate is the greatest Gap since 1900 and the voting across party lines is the least since 1900 so you see this Gap you see it you see it in the elections right the green and so uh the blue and red so we’re not it’s it’s not just an evolutionary it’s where we are where we have gotten to that is the irreconcilable questions does the Supreme Court you know we thought about the Supreme Court differently not long ago right the Supreme Court was the Supreme Court and so now it’s different so what accounts I mean there are a million ways to measure this in all them do do you agree well of course I agree of course I agree and I and I agree with you that every measurement shows the same result which is the country is POL so we know where we are but it what completely and we’re not sure how it’s resolved but I think it’s also worth pausing to ask what ha what was the change that led to the polarization that was unimaginable even 35 years ago um the change was um in a combination of the system working well for the majority of the people and which has to do with the majority of the people not be being productive you have productivity equals income right okay so now if you take education um and you take measures of how productive or how well trained you’re going to be you see and therefore also income your productivity you see by all of these measures great great gaps that exist so by way of example um is um unicorns and the changes that we’re seeing fabulous changes in what we’re seeing in uh Technologies but it really comes down to if you take the number of people who have been making those changes and have a unicorns in this wonderful world they go to the best universities and they make these wonderful things happen that’s about 3 million people in a country of a little over 330 million people and if you take the average 60% of Americans have below a sixth grade reading level 60% of Americans so when we deal with education you have to make that population productive and um and through productivity they become educated and they become productive they earn money and you have a better Society so a number of things changed that um it was the combination of globalization yeah and Technology think about I remember and you probably remember what the middle class working on an assembly line and an auto plant was like and how manufacturing occurred yes okay a combination of foreign producers and uh automation changed all that of course so that produces a larger wealth Gap and then with that wealth Gap we also have very large um uh values gaps but it’s driven by the wealth Gap it’s it’s both you know um some population here we are at the world government sum Summit in uh Dubai and you have very globalization and everybody the elites let’s call them the elites we among the elites are here doing deals and and you know facing questions and all of that um and at the same time then there’s those who are dealing with their Basics so um wealth gaps contribute to it but there’s also values gaps technology is part of the reason that we’re here religion yes you know belief systems these are important too of course but we’re on the edge of this AI transformation which seems like it’s going to accelerate the trends that have led us to where we are right now so what do you I mean if artificial intelligence you know increases efficiency but leaves an even greater number of people without meaningful work in the United States there needs what happens there needs to be a game plan yeah okay there needs to be a game plan that that that’s the main thing another words I can describe the circumstances yes okay and we can agree that there needs to be a game plan well let me ask you since I’m not responsible for the game plan you know but since you know everybody and you spend your life talking everybody and you know you’re one of the world’s biggest investors so you know you’re taking these questions seriously are you familiar with a game plan in progress like there was not a game plan at all no that seems crazy you know yeah it seems crazy it seems we are going from a transition I’m just being analytical right mechanical okay we are going from from a transition in which there is I don’t know collectivism a um multi-national you know all the constituents working together kind of environment that has also created a bureaucracy and inefficiencies and so on so you’re going from an environment in which there was a World Health Organization a World Trade Organization a world bank and all of that to unilateral um it’s in my own interest um in other words as a country or within a country as a constituency My Tribe what is my interest and you’re going to fight for it so we have evolved into that kind of the land situation and so the question is almost what is the Wii who is in control okay uh I mean we change control very quickly so and then e who has the plan so now you get in control you fight to get into control you’re in control you got to do things quickly and you’re doing things quickly you know we don’t have the continuity to be able to work together to be able to have a plan well to be more specific about it I would say the people developing the Technologies so they would be various Chinese companies of course but also Google and Microsoft Sam Alman you’re so idealistic but realistic yes we all should work together no no no no no I’m merely saying if I’m you know unleashing something on the global population then I think it’s fair to ask me like what you know like what do you expect to happen to everybody I think no no no but I think that’s what I mean the notion that it’s fair to uh denies the reality that we’re in an environment of pursuit of self-interest so if you take the fight let’s say of Technologies um of course the one who wants to get the latest AI out wants to beat the other one who does it let alone an American firm and a Chinese firm and I’m just trying to describe the realities to you Tucker so now let’s look at those realities that’s the reality So when you say they should okay that’s the theoretical should they should come up up with rules that is better for the harmony of the people as a whole okay I agree they should I guess what I’m saying I’m idealistic you got to grow up Tucker I know I’m 55 I’m still disappointed but you’re absolutely right um and I’m not not here to sort of inspire a moral lecture from you or deliver one I just want to kind of know what you think is going to happen um so you have these Technologies is it fair to say that they really are as transformative they’re as big a deal hugely the greatest so I’ve studied history right yes I study um you know what was the impact of the printing press and what was the impact for the industrial revolutions and so on this in my opinion is the biggest impact that we have because it will revolutionize all thinking that applies to everything it applies to everything so whatever you’re doing it will make it much more efficient much more powerful and but that includes Wars too you know everything is going to be radically transformed because anything that we apply thinking to is going to be very much transformed by it we did an interview with a woman called Casey means she’s a Stanford educated surgeon and really one of the most remarkable people I have ever met in the interview she explained how the food that we eat produced by huge food companies big food in conjunction with Pharma is destroying our health making this a weak and sick country the levels of chronic disease are beyond belief what Casey means we’ve not stopped thought thinking about ever since is the co-founder of a healthcare technology company called levels and we are proud to announce today that we are partnering with levels and by proud I mean sincerely proud levels is a really interesting company and a great product it gives you insight into what’s going on inside your body your metabolic Health it helps you understand how the food that you’re eating the things that you’re doing every single day are affecting your body in real time and you don’t think about it you have no idea what you’re putting in your mouth and you have no idea what it’s doing to your body but over time you feel weak and tired and Spacey and over an even longer period of time you can get really sick so it’s worth knowing what the food you eat is doing to you the levels app works with something called a continuous glucose monitor a CGM you can get one as part of the planner you can bring your own it doesn’t matter but the bottom line is Big Tech big Pharma and big food combined together to form an incredibly malevolent Force pumping you full of garbage unhealthy food with artificial sugars and hurting you and hurting the entire country so with levels you be able to see immediately what all this is doing to you you get access to real-time personalized data and that’s a critical step to changing your behavior those of us who like Oreos can tell you firsthand this isn’t talking to your doctor at annual physical looking backwards about things you did in the past this is up to the second information on how your body is responding to different foods and activities the things that give you stress your sleep etc etc it’s easy to use it gives you powerful personalized Health Data then you can make much better choices about how you feel and over time it’ll have a huge effect right now you can get an additional two free months when you go to levels. link Tucker that’s levels. link Tucker this is the beginning of what we hope will be a long and happy partnership with levels and Dr Casey means C can you give us some concrete examples that you believe will come to pass you know in the next few years what will change um that we at this point can understand well right now um according uh tests of of of AIS is um we um all of them um can pass tests that are um equivalent to the phds in all fields in one mind so that there is what we call MIP paaths that people who um can think both across domains so in that we have these operating so that it’s not just like a PhD in one area it’s like a PhD in all areas and that it could look across those areas and give you answers and operate that way that has created the there’s an acceleration of this because it compounds as it learns the learning compounds and it produces that so that is a reality today people just haven’t yet experienced all of that and so you’re very quickly going to be in a situation where the the problems are going to be given to it um you’re going to ask it strategies and so on that can take into consideration all of the things that are happening from everywhere and how the cause effect relationships work think about it this way there’s so much complexity in the world everything that we um you know what happened there’s there economic policy or economic things there are Financial things there are um health things there are all of these things and they all relate to each other it’s you know it’s called um I think the butterfly syndrome you know if a butterfly changes flaps its wings it has these secondary con consequences this is all very complex it’s very complex for the human mind to think about those things yes we’re now having a situation where it can all be taken into consideration and and be a partner a thought partner that can actually go beyond our capacities to think about those relationships and it and in thinking about those relationships and so on it has an enormous impact um somebody in medical um area was giving me the example of um uh learning about all the causes but with the data that they’re going to have on each one of us about uh what were our experiences and what is our diagn is of your each of the parts and you watch that over time what what air do you breathe what environment are you in what stress are you in and all that that there will be the understanding of these cause effect relationships that in turn change things and then you go down to the microscopic level of um dealing with practically at the molecular cell level in dealing with these problems okay the changing of DNA and these types of things all of those we are in the midst of a tremendous revolutionary change what about the field of Economics can you take kind of the art and the guessing out of it at this point so you’re you’re saying you have said many times you’ve written a lot about it about the need of governments to get down to 3% of GDP with their debt so or else everything collapses how do you do that and all these political consequences the population doesn’t want less money spent on them obviously you could get you know governments falling and stuff wouldn’t AI just solve that for you uh you said it produces strategy there’s there’s does AI Control human nature no but these are human nature my bet is that human nature is going to be the biggest force and it’s all going to come down to like how we are with each other I’m so glad though so there’ll be room for human beings still even as we’re changing DNA and implanting and stff well if not we’re lost and if so uh we’re dealing with each other I don’t know how well that’s going to go either but I wonder like that you know there’s still debates I mean you’re effectively Economist the debates about supply side versus demand side like what is you know what is the near and far- term effect of these economic we’re going to we’re we’re going to be able to understand at a micro level how things work better exactly okay so I by the way um again I put out this um this writing uh this study that shows the mechanics and I want to convey that mechanic so everybody could see the mechanics but you’re going to go down to a molecular level that means like nowadays um we or policy makers like the Federal Reserve think about uh something like inflation right and the and there’ll be maybe five measures of inflation and we’re using the term inflation because our minds are limited in its capacity to the of the number of things we could think about right when we’re now in this new reality which we now are you can go down to a molecular level essentially and saying I could see all the different transactions of what was bought and what was sold and why and now I can really have a level of understanding we don’t have to be at this Grand level that we don’t we’re going to be at the molecular level of understanding individual transactions and what’s affecting them and be able to deploy resources at the individual molecular level just like we can do it in biology or uh physical existence and so on so I mean this will s lots of downsides to AI obviously I I dread it I would end it if I could but there are upsides in this sounds like one of them so like if you of course so we have a covid again and we’re thinking about should we issue covid checks with AI we can know the effect right what the money’s going for and that’ll change everything it’ll change the controls and it it but it is of course a two-edged sword right it’ll change uh who controls it who has access to it who can use it detrimentally to other people all of these things are part of the question is there any way to avoid like totalitarian social controls under AI with AI I think there’s a question of whether you can have social and and talian totalitarian controls or maybe you just have Anarchy I mean I don’t know where we’re going I don’t I can’t tell you I cannot tell you what this world I do I do believe we’re going to go through a Time Warp okay what I mean it’s going to feel like you’re going through over the next five years and that environment is because of these five major forces the that all of these things and the changes in the Technologies particularly artificial intelligence and related Technologies so the world 5 years from now is going to be a radically different world and I don’t know what that’s going to look like when you go into the world of quantum Computing and and what Quantum is like in so many different ways it raises questions of you know what is that like I’m not smart enough to tell you what that world is going to look like an investor for 50 years who is in control I don’t know who’s in control okay so but right so this is like the opposite of what you’ve done your whole life where you Tred to predict you know 5 years hence that’s your whole business right well that’s uh I said my my business is try to predict but I I’d say first thing whatever success I’ve had in life has more to been due to my knowing how to deal with what I don’t know than anything I know okay so how you deal with what you don’t know I believe that okay is so important so um I yes my my business in a nutshell is is I try to find a bunch of bets that I think are good bets but to diversify well so that I have a bunch of Diversified B bets because I I do not know I mean in terms of my actual track record I’ve probably been right about 65% of the time okay and I and any one Bad Bet can kill you so I’ve known how to deal with that that’s what I’ve learned including how to deal with what I don’t know so now you’re describing an environment where you can’t really know anything about the world in five years you well I can know I could place good bets okay there are some things that are highly knowable okay highly knowable like they say you know death in taxes right okay uh demographics okay um so I can know or have a view for example that owning I believe owning dead assets is not going to be a good thing so I could think about alternative stor holds of wealth I can think about that I can place some bets that allow me you know they’re not the certain bets but I can place enough bets and have enough diversification that I can be relatively confident of some things but never absolutely all totally confident but I think when we’re coming back anyway that’s the reality I’m just describing the my our reality the best I can that’s why people who are confident in the future future and are just experiencing the present you know right now people are describing all of them are describing how things are and almost everybody thinks the future is going to be a modified version of the Pres pure extrapolation forward yeah okay things are good right I get it okay things well I’ll guarantee you there will be big changes so those are dumb people you’re saying making those cont I’m saying it’s it’s understandable but when you study change yeah and the nature of change it’s a um you know the world changes in dramatic ways because of causes that we can look at and get a good understanding of but we can’t be sure about anything because of the nature but in this specific I mean that’s always true and wise people understand that like you don’t you’re not control of the future of course not God but in this specific case where there are specific Technologies whose development we understand cuz we’re watching it it almost feels like there’s no human agency here like not one person ever suggests like well why don’t we just stop the development of the Technologies by force well there a I think you’re being theoretical again you know just look how the system works okay who makes what decisions how like I think you have the bias of we should stop all these Technologies and just stop it somebody else has another POS View and the other people have other views and as a and then there’s a means by which those views turn into actions okay and so it’s correct the system that we’re dealing in um uh will make those types of decisions and we could discuss the pros and cons of all of those things but that’s just how it works right I don’t know I mean there there are all kinds of pernicious long-standing things that we stopped like the global slave trade the Brits are like we’re not for this we’re stopping it and they did Tucker you you are using that we stopped okay no Britain stopped it okay but I’m just trying to say you have to look at the system and say who has their hands on the levels of power right and what will they do and what are their motivations how does the system work I think that’s right okay how does the machine work to make decisions okay we so if can agree on this person makes these types of decisions about these things and it works this way then we can say we the collective we can do that but this theoretical Collective we that is going to make decision like we could sit here and be very I get I get it I a determined Nation probably can’t stop this so that my second question is you keep hearing there’s this AI race between the United States and China yeah um is it true that one country will be completely dominant by the end of this race and that that will be meaningful or I think no I think that what’s going to happen is uh and again I’m speaking now probabilistically I think that um CH there will be different types of developments but by and large you you it’s very difficult to keep intellectual property yes that you when you take the products of the intellectual property and you put them in the public exactly that’ll last about 6 months I mean at most and you’ll develop your the nearest um and and so intellectual property protections and isolation is probably not going to work so um and so now we’re going to have um um different advantages and disadvantages let’s say for example in China’s case there are many Fantastic chips not quite at the same level at see we design chips but we can’t produce chips effectively we can’t produce by we can’t produce things any manufactured goods as effectively cost effectively by and large we have a problem doing that um so what we’ll we’ll do is we’ll design those better cheaps you won’t have the intellectual protections and you’re going to then have the production of things in China at a very inexpensive way manufacturing China has about uh 33% of the manufacturing in the world which is is more than the United States Europe and Japan combined they manufacture effectively cheaply they will embed chips in the manufacturing the application of chips they’re going to Pro they are more ahead on China’s more ahead on the application of chips robotics so we’re talking about just thinking but when you connect the thinking to bodies that are automatic bodies too and you have Robotics and so on they’re ahead on that type of thing so different entities are going to be ahead in different ways and we’re going to then be in this world in which there’s competition in that world and then there’s an attempt to be protectionist or whatever or to fight those differences and that’s what the world looks like does uh the combination of AI and Robotics bring manufacturing back to the United States um we are behind in in both of those areas greatly behind you know um so uh you know I I would say we’re not going to have competitive advantages in those things what we’re what we’re competitive in is that small percentage of the population that is uniquely inventive in terms of inventiveness you know the number of Nobel Prize winners in the United States United States dominates Nobel Prize winners in in the world the inventiveness best universities and so on we have a system uh that is a legal system and a capital market system and we can bring the best from the world all to the United States to create an environment if we could work well together in that inventiveness um with rule of law working and all of that working we have those things that are our competitive Advantage we do not have manufacturing and we’re not going to go back and be competitive in manufacturing with China um in our lifetimes I don’t believe Okay so now the question is how we deal with that our inventiveness you just said and many have said comes from our education system from our universities but then you began the conversation by saying that AI is already and foreigners um if you look at that population there’s three million people who you know just basically changing about half of them are foreigners if you can attract the best and the brightest right and there’s a lot to be attracted to in the United States from the best and the B because we are a country of all of these different people operating this way and we create these equal opportunities look who’s running some of the countries companies they come from different places if we can have the best of the world in the world come in that kind of environment to be creative and so on we can invent and so on but we can’t produce but those those the people you’re describing have come to our universities that’s basically that’s right silicon Valley’s there cuz Stanford’s there that’s right if you’ve been paying attention you know that Alp is not just another nicotine pouch it is literally the best nicotine pouch in the world and we know because we use it all day long we’ve used all of them turns out you can actually make money by telling people about out we’re launching our affiliate program if you have an audience big or small you can cash in you earn 10% Commission on every sale of Al that you bring in and to make it even easier we’ll give you a 10% off link for your followers they save you earn it’s really simple by the way compared to all the other products people sell online Al is truly good it’s delicious it is easy to sell because it’s heartfelt to spread the word get rewarded for it best nicotine pouch in the world but you began the conversation by saying that AI is now at the point where you know the machines have the equivalent knowledge of a PhD in every different topic so like at some point are you going to have universities um we’ll redefine what universities are like but you’re going to have those that combination of things yes working together because still we’re a long way from not a long way but we’re we’re away from the point of the decision making will be made by the AI because they’ll okay and that wisdom will be by the AI like you’re not going to have the AI determine how your you raise your kid and different people will raise their children differently and so on U the actual um you’ll rely on it but um it’s really the magic for the able future is remarkable people with remarkable Technologies producing remarkable uh changes and then we’re going to have then the consequences of that as long as human decision- making plays a role I’m totally fine with it but yeah you say that the university is going to change I mean how could it not I thought the internet was going to get rid of universities it didn’t happen but I mean how long does it take for the current model to to change it’s pretty resistant to change um I think it’s uh yes it’s slow to change and those who change slowly will be left behind and um and then you’ll have the best I I would say um uh you see things taking place but anyway it it’ll I would expect that it’s going to life is is more like a game I think you know it’s almost like um it’s almost like a video game and you’re going to be have real world learning experiences in many different ways to be able to provide education but it’s going to be interative yeah you’re going to see a type of merging whether you like it or not you’re going to see a type of merging of uh the man and the uh artificial intelligence does that worry you of course it worries me uh and then it excites me um you know what worries me most fundamentally is how people are with each other okay can we put Harmony and and and happiness um togetherness can we resolve decisions issues can we deal with these issues together uh that is the most important thing I think PE I think we emphasize too much the uh the wonderful remarkable things that we get from AI like we’ll have greater life expectancy and less disease and we can have all of those things but U the question is do we have uh Harmony quality of life you know it’s I did a study it’s also I put it out free online which is ratings lots of Statistics used for rating various conditions of countries uh 24 top countries it’s called um uh the global Powers index it’s online free for anybody wants to look at it and I rated um different powers um Power economic power military power education power and so on then I uh rated Health how long you live the diseases you’re encumbered by and so on and happiness what your happiness level is and what’s interesting about that is that the measures of power uh don’t have a um past a certain level of living standards don’t have a correlation with uh health Health which is amazing because you have all the money to produce the health and or and have no correlation with happiness um that um like for example in the United States uh which is the most powerful country in the world by these measures um our life expectancy is five years less than Canadians so they’re right next to us and five years less than company uh countries of equal income l s okay so Health we don’t there’s poor correlation um and unhappiness there’s no correlation the like uh Indonesia um has the second highest happiness rating you know so all I’m saying is we should think about also how we work with each other how we are with each other the the highest um uh determin of happiness is is community of course if you have a good Community you have happiness and it has a positive effect on health so I think it all comes down to how we are with each other that is going in dealing with all of the questions that you’re raising there’s been no advance in like changing human nature over time right I mean let’s a technological Advance no advaning getting along with each other yeah it’s uh it goes in es and Cycles I would look at it this way um there are many religions in the world uh most of the religions have two components to them um the first component is you know follow the word of God and you have to follow it and you know in in that way uh but the others are about Harmony and they are in other words how do we create a harmonious Society you know the so you look at the Ten Commandments or something you and they rules for how do you achieve Harmony and there are things like Karma okay how do you achieve Harmony so different societies have different ways of trying to achieve Harmony we so I think that’s important Harmony I think it comes down to some basic things like um I watch I study this thing and I go around the world I think first um do you educate raise your children well okay in other words educate them in capability so they’re capable but also in Civility and how they are with each other because a capable civil person will come out to a society in which they can work well together to be productive that people have to be productive right so but they in order to be productive you have to have a Harmony they have to deal with the questions I’m answering your question about how we deal with this I’m saying we have to deal with it together together there’s only in an environment where there’s Harmony rather than fighting are you going to be able to address the types of questions that you’re raising right how do you you you know you when you ask me uh uh you know is uh what’s going to happen with uh Ai and and then you say we need to do this and we need to do that it strikes me that it dep how the we deal with each other to be able to deal with those things is the most important thing and there are basics of how we deal with each other that’s the most important thing I agree with that last question you didn’t grow I don’t think you grew up in like a billionaire world no my dad was a jazz musician and and you know we had a low middle class family but I have everything I ever needed well so that’s kind of my question now you live obviously in a billionaire World which is where do you run into more happy people oh almost generally if you get past the things that you uh your Basics you know if I can uh you know health education habitat and you get past those you’ve got everything you need and then if you have Community you have everything you need that is the best rellia thank you very much thank you so it turns out that YouTube is suppressing this show and one level that’s not surprising that’s what they do but on another level it’s shocking with everything that’s going on in the world right now all all the change taking place in our economy and our politics with the wars we on the cusp of fighting right now Google has decided you should have less information rather than more and that is totally wrong it’s immoral what can you do about it well we could whine about it that’s a waste of time we’re not in charge of Google or we could find a way around it a way that you could actually get information that is true not intentionally deceptive the way to do that on YouTube we think is to subscribe to our Channel subscribe hit the little bell icon to be notified when we upload and share this video that way you’ll have a much higher chance of hearing actual news and information so we hope that you’ll do that

参考

桥水达利欧：美国分裂、AI竞赛、全球失序，未来五年将如何演变? Youtube: Ray Dalio：美国隐藏的内战，以及在技术，经济和学术界击败中国的竞赛